Recently, a group of collaborators and I gathered ice data from 43 lakes around the world going back 87 years, including Mohonk Lake in New Paltz. The study indicates how the ice season will be more and more variable in many lakes with one year having 2 months of ice and the next having no ice at all. Year-to-year variability will increase until the ice season shrinks to a month in length. From then on, the year-to-year variability gets smaller until the ice is lost, and winters are ice free.
The study was published in the flagship journal of the Association for the Science of Limnology and Oceanography: Limnology and Oceanography. See a link to the article here or a pdf [link] here.
Additionally, see the press release from SUNY New Paltz here [link].
I used to skate on a lake near my house, so hearing that the winter ice is disappearing makes me feel quite sad. The erratic changes over the years are like playing Drift Boss – at first you can control it, but as you progress the path becomes more and more unpredictable and eventually you fall off the path. Nature is really out of balance.
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This is fascinating research, David! It’s concerning to see the impact of climate change so clearly illustrated in the ice data. The increasing variability is especially striking. It makes you think about how these changes affect everything from local ecosystems to recreational activities. Speaking of recreational activities, I wonder how these shorter, less predictable ice seasons will impact things like ice fishing and even virtual pastimes that feature winter environments – maybe someone could even create a “Drift Hunters” version for ice racing someday! Thanks for sharing this important work.
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