Alex Gorzula

Instructor Peter Camilleri

English 170-28

12/1/2023

Humanity is dying out. 

 

All over the world, the population is collapsing. People are no longer interested in starting a family. The widespread consensus for a time was the population was increasing, and this would lead to poverty, depleting resources, and violence. But this is an unfounded fear of the world’s carrying capacity, which is the amount of resources divided by the number of people in the world. This is the way we judge the stability of the population. Most developed countries face population stabilization or decline, and developing countries are also on track to this trend. (BW Planet A) But what is population collapse, and why is it so scary? Population collapse is when a country’s fertility rate falls beneath the rate of 2.1 kids per woman(TOTAL FERTILITY RATE). This number is estimated to stabilize a population, and a number above mean growth and any number below mean decline, which is the issue we are facing today. So, what are the consequences of a declining population? First, a healthy population looks like a pyramid separated into three groups, the bottom being children and newborns, the middle sections being working-age adults, and finally, the top elderly, retired people who are no longer contributing to the economy. This is not the case with Countries facing population collapse; their population tends to look either reversed or with a small foundation, with the middle and top portions of the shape being similar in size. This means there are more elderly and middle-aged people than babies born and raised.

With a lack of children, schools are filled in. The workforce will not be able to replenish itself, leaving thousands of open jobs and slowing economic growth and technology and development as taxes become more intense, having to support a much higher older population to the working population class. (Kurzgesgt) We can only speculate about the drastic decline of our population. Most Demographers only look till 2100, but the trends and population patterns show that there will be a plummet after our growth stabilizes. It would be opposed to what we saw in the 20th century. (Opinion).

The “what” is clear: the human population is dying off, but why now? South Korea’s Fertility rate is 0.8(Uptin). Children per woman in 2022, the lowest in the world. Theoretically, this means that 100 South Korean women today will have 40 kids in 2050, who will then have 16 kids in 2075, and they will have only six kids by 2100. If everything stays the same within 100 years, there will be a 94% decrease in young people. An economy will not be able to sustain a population drop like this. South Korea is also the biggest exporter of pop culture, so besides the economic downturn, the whole world will feel this(Kurzgesgt). South Korea will be down on manpower, and with the North constantly butting heads, they may see this as an opportunity to take advantage of the low defense. This will also bring Korean allies, leading to an all-out war. Many countries are already on edge, and this may be the match needed to light the already set up fire pit. Many women in Korea say it is too expensive to have a child(Uptin).

Even with government programs providing financial aid to mothers, some say it’s still not enough to incentivize having a child; I believe, not just in Korea but worldwide, especially in developed countries, that it has become more about the individual than about starting a family.  Also, some feel, including men, that Korea is not a safe place to have a child, but this is a trend also seen in Japan(Exum, Anika Osaki). Japan has a birth rate of 1.26 with no sign of improvement. But for the same reasons. As the standard of living increases, women have more options than to start a family. Also, with rapid inflation and growing global conflict, many don’t want to bring a child into a scary world. Social media is partly to blame for this. Even though we see more violence happen, it does not necessarily mean the world has become more dangerous. As time progresses, the world has only gotten safer and safer. However, life in Asia is much different than in the US; it’s much more stressful and intense. The younger generation is another reason not to have children(Exum, Anika Osaki). 

Even the country with the highest population of 1.4 billion people Faces this global decline at a rate like no other. China’s working-age population will drop by 20% or 200 million people. This is about the same workforce as the USA. Being the biggest provider of goods globally will negatively affect the country’s production. This may mean economic stagnation and that China will always stay within the US’s economy. (Bloomberg) In the 20th century, China’s popularity grew unprecedentedly, and more resources were needed to handle a large population. So, in 1980, the Chinese government implemented the one-child policy- families could only have one child. This was done by finding the family having forced abortion, and if the family worked for the government, they would be fired. Another consequence of this policy is the drop in female children. In China, the male inherits and keeps the name and receives money from the family. It is also tradition that the male takes care of his parents after retirement. With families forced to have one child, most preferred a boy over a girl. This, on top of the same reasons that Japan and Korea are seeing their populations drop, is why China is seeing the steepest drop in the world’s birth rate (Bloomberg). 

This is happening in Asia, America, and most of Europe. Many of these countries have different reasons why they have the birth rate they currently do. But some of these reasons are recurring. As the world’s equality increases, women have more options than to start a family. Also, with rising global tensions and inflation, many don’t want to put a child on this earth in fear of their safety. And many are afraid they will not have the capital to sustain a family leading them to hold off or not have kids altogether. This will cause economic instability, quality of life, and technological advancement to slow down. The younger population will have to deal with even more financial difficulty as they have to pay for elderly care through taxes. More businesses, schools, and hospitals will close. Not because they do not need them but because these facilities will no longer be able to reach the threshold that allows them to stay open.

Not everyone sees this as a bad thing. Feldstein Stephanie has a different way of seeing population collapse, stating that. Population decline will reduce our carbon footprint in the world. As the population increased, so did the usage of raw natural materials. This puts an incredible strain on the environment and wildlife as countries try to keep up with the growing population. ”The human population has doubled over the past 50 years, and wildlife populations have plummeted by an average of 69 percent. We’ve already altered at least 70 percent of Earth’s land, with some reports putting that number at 97 percent. Our activities have driven wildlife from their homes and destroyed irreplaceable ecosystems”. The decline of biodiversity is a tragedy and a complex problem to solve, especially with a population of 8 billion people. But as the standard of living increases, this will get worse before it gets better. This also causes economic damage.” The World Bank estimates ecosystem collapse could cost $2.7 trillion annually by 2030. Deloitte recently estimated climate chaos could cost the United States alone $14.5 trillion by 2070 as we respond to the increasingly frequent and intense damage caused by extreme weather and wildfires and the threats to communities, farms, and businesses from droughts and unpredictable weather”(Feldstein, Stephanie).  

Feldstein provides a solid claim with good evidence, but believing that humanity dying out is a good thing is clinical. Considering that all the world’s problems will be solved if we just sit there and die is a foolish approach to solving our global issues. For centuries, mankind has solved all its problems through technological advancement. And with the population decline soon becoming an immediate problem, our ability to provide answers to these solutions will become much slower. This is how we will solve the issue plaguing our society, Not by slowly passing away but with human perseverance and intellect.

 

Works Cited

Feldstein, Stephanie. “Population Decline Will Change the World for the Better.” Scientific American, 4 May 2023, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-decline-will-change-the-world-for-the-better/. Accessed 3 November 2023.

Bloomberg. “What China’s falling population Means for its Future.” Youtube, 14 Apr 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx2ByS6oyBs&ab_channel=BloombergOriginals.

BW Planet A. “Is overpopulation a problem for the planet?” YouTube, 13 Nov 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUL-q7ptDW4&ab_channel=DWPlanetA.

Exum, Anika Osaki. “Japan’s fertility rate is likely even lower than it seems.” The Japan Times, 10 July 2023, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/07/10/national/science-health/fertility-rate-calculation-foreign-women/. Accessed 5 December 2023.

Kurzgesgt. “Why Korea is Dying Out.” YouTube, 4 Oct 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBudghsdByQ&t=664s&ab_channel=Kurzgesagt%E2%80%93InaNutshell.

“Opinion | What Happens When Global Human Population Peaks?” The New York Times, 18 September 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/18/opinion/human-population-global-growth.html. Accessed 5 December 2023.

“TOTAL FERTILITY RATE Demographics Population Change 1. INDICATOR (a) Name: Total fertility (b) Brief Definition: The average nu.” the United Nations, https://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/total_fertility_rate.pdf. Accessed 5 December 2023.

Uptin. “South Korea’s Crisis: It Needs Babies.” YouTube, 22 Apr 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C9fHN-2dx4&t=217s&ab_channel=Uptin.